For the 45th year, Chapman University President Emeritus Jim Doti forecasted the future of the economy, mixing data with insights from colleagues and humorous takes on his half marathon runs and appearance on \u201cThe Bold and the Beautiful.\u201d<\/p>\n
The major takeaways of the forecast were a projected recession by mid-2023 and a drop in Orange County\u2019s median home price. Doti and his team also projected a sharp drop in residential permits and lagging advanced industries jobs and new business growth in California.<\/p>\n
Doti called 2021 and 2022\u2019s consumption, real GDP and unemployment rates the \u201ccalm before the storm,\u201d drawing a comparison to the 1974\u201375 recession. And residential investment \u2013 now as it did 50 years ago \u2013 is dropping and will drag down consumer spending, which is the \u201cbig gorilla\u201d of the GDP, he said.<\/p>\n
He projected a -6% drop in real GDP in mid-2023 \u2013 \u201cnot as deep\u201d as the mid-\u201970s recession. \u201cThe cat\u2019s out of the bag \u2013 we are forecasting a recession for next year,\u201d he said. Since what started as Doti\u2019s Orange County economic forecast in 1977, Chapman\u2019s annual forecast has become a nationally respected indicator known for its accuracy. Doti reiterated Chapman\u2019s pinpoint 2021 forecast for 5.7% growth in real GDP, which ranked the university No. 4 for accuracy out of 25 Blue Chip forecasts and helped Chapman stay in the top position for real GDP forecasting between 2004 and 2021.<\/p>\n
In his state forecast, Doti noted that Orange County home prices have been decreasing since their $1 million-plus peak in April. A more important economic factor is new-home construction, which Doti said will be revealed through a 40% decrease in residential permits in 2023.<\/p>\n
Additionally, Orange County median home prices will drop to $933,000 by the middle of next year, Doti said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
President Emeritus Jim Doti led his team of Chapman economists during the 45th annual Economic Forecast<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3061,"featured_media":2150,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"custom_author_name":"","chapman_pin_hero_slider":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[377,378],"class_list":["post-2149","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-updates","tag-economic-forecast","tag-president-emeritus-jim-doti"],"yoast_head":"\n