{"id":2182,"date":"2023-08-16T21:44:50","date_gmt":"2023-08-16T21:44:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogschapman.wpenginepowered.com\/community-relations\/2023\/08\/16\/chapman-economists-predict-moderate-recession-for-second-half-of-2023\/"},"modified":"2023-08-16T21:44:50","modified_gmt":"2023-08-16T21:44:50","slug":"chapman-economists-predict-moderate-recession-for-second-half-of-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.chapman.edu\/community-relations\/2023\/08\/16\/chapman-economists-predict-moderate-recession-for-second-half-of-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"Chapman Economists Predict 'Moderate' Recession for Second Half of 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"

On June 22, Chapman University President Emeritus Jim Doti gave an update on his 45th Economic Forecast, sticking with his December 2022 prediction of a recession in 2023. \u201cWe\u2019re pointing to a negative change in the third quarter and the fourth quarter, and that\u2019s the stuff of a recession, perhaps a moderate one \u2026 certainly a slowdown of some sort,\u201d Doti said during his presentation at Chapman\u2019s Musco Center for the Arts. Doti said his forecast of a 1.5% change in real GDP was closer to the 2023 first-quarter change \u2013 1.1 \u2013 than the consensus prediction of 50 other forecasts.<\/p>\n

In December, Doti forecasted a drop in Orange County\u2019s median home price to $933,000 by the middle of 2023. It was $983,000 in the first quarter of 2023, with Doti forecasting a drop of about 10% by the end of the year.<\/p>\n

\u201cObviously that\u2019s related to the home mortgage rate, but on the positive side we see mortgage rates dropping,\u201d said Doti, predicting a slight decrease throughout the rest of 2023.<\/p>\n

Housing affordability in the county has dropped, and Doti predicted a small uptick by the end of the year. \u201cIt may suggest that we\u2019re near a trough in terms of housing price depreciation and the housing market in general,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Regarding California, Doti and Raymond Sfeir, director of the A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research, delved into trends like inflow and outflow of people and wage earners \u2013 particularly people making over $200,000.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019ve been down on California and all of the problems \u2026 but we have to come up with some balance, and there are some strengths in California, and Raymond and I have been talking about them, because there\u2019s a lot going, obviously, for this beautiful Golden State,\u201d Doti said.<\/p>\n

Since what started as Doti\u2019s Orange County economic forecast in 1977, Chapman\u2019s annual forecast has become a nationally respected indicator known for its accuracy. Among the forecasts of 25 other agencies, Chapman\u2019s forecast has been No. 1 in accurately predicting real gross domestic product (GDP) from 2004 to 2021, according to data Doti compiles.<\/p>\n

Watch the Economic Forecast online at economicforecast.chapman.edu<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

On June 22, Chapman University President Emeritus Jim Doti gave an update on his 45th Economic Forecast, sticking with his 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