ORANGE, CA —According to the latest survey of California residents, the California Composite Index of Consumer Sentiment increased slightly from the third quarter reading of 106.7 to a reading of 107.9. An index level above 100 indicates a higher percentage of optimistic consumers versus those who are pessimistic.
This result could be explained by the anticipated uncertain, but hopeful, outcomes of income tax reform by Congress.
The California Composite Index is generated based on three indices: consumers’ outlook on current and future economic conditions, and an index measuring consumers’ spending plan.
The current economic conditions index recorded a reading of 110.3 in November of 2017. This reflects a miniscule increase from the revised reading of 110.2 in August of 2017. The index measuring future economic conditions showed more enthusiasm with an increase of 4.5 points, from an August reading of 99.8 to 104.3 in November.
The index measuring consumers’ planned spending on big-ticket items decreased by 3.4 points from a reading of 113.6 in August of 2017 to 110.2 in November. This suggests that consumers’ spending over the next six months on big-ticket items will continue but will not be as strong.
BACKGROUND AND METHODOLOGY:
Beginning in the third quarter of 2002, the Anderson Center for Economic Research at Chapman University launched a survey to measure California consumer sentiment. This survey is similar to the monthly national survey of consumer sentiment conducted by the University of Michigan.
A survey comprised of five questions is mailed to a stratified sample of 7,500 residences throughout the state, with a historical response rate of 5 to 10 percent. Two questions relate to the current economic conditions, two questions address future economic conditions (one year outlook) and one question evaluates the consumers’ current plan for purchasing big ticket items.
The results are summarized into four indices. One index measures consumer sentiment about the current economic condition, a second measures consumers’ future economic expectations, the third is a composite index representing overall consumer confidence, and the fourth index measures consumers’ current spending plan on durable goods.
ABOUT THE ANDERSON CENTER FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH
The A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research (ACER) was established in 1979 to provide data, facilities and support in order to encourage the faculty and students at Chapman University to engage in economic and business research of high quality, and to disseminate the results of this research to the community.
ANNUAL SCHEDULE OF CONFERENCES AND PRESS RELEASES
JANUARY
- Economic Forecast Conferences for the Inland Empire
- California Purchasing Managers Survey
MARCH
- California Consumer Sentiment Survey
APRIL
- California Purchasing Managers Survey
JUNE
- California Consumer Sentiment Survey
- Economic Forecast Update Conference for the U.S., California, and Orange County
JULY
- California Purchasing Managers Survey
SEPTEMBER
- California Consumer Sentiment Survey
OCTOBER
- California Purchasing Managers Survey
DECEMBER
- Economic Forecast Conference for the U.S., California and Orange County
- California Consumer Sentiment Survey
