Californians can expect a slight increase in job growth, according to Chapman University
economists. During the presentation of the 47th annual Economic Forecast on Dec. 12, President
Emeritus Jim Doti predicted that, nationwide, there would be slow economic growth and an
inflation rate hitting 3% by year-end 2025.

“While inflation is expected to rise, the Federal Reserve will likely hold off on substantial
rate cuts,” Doti said. “The effects of earlier rate hikes will persist, but we anticipate a stable
economic environment.”

Doti said there will continue to be slow economic growth in Orange County. Advanced jobs, which pay two or three times the average wage rate, are practically flat in Orange County at .4% growth. However, one strength in Orange County is in the medical technology industry, with the county being ranked the highest of 50 different metropolitan areas that Doti’s team tracked.

Doti also made a number of forecasts for Orange County’s 2025 housing market, including that home sales would only slightly increase from 22,400 in 2024 to 23,100 next year. This is a steep decline from the 38,600 sales in 2021.

“People are not putting their homes up for sale and for good reason, we calculated the present value of a mortgage at 3% for 30 years versus what they are at 6%, and the present value of that asset is $800,000,” he said. “People don’t want to lose that.”

Doti is also projecting a slight drop in Orange County home prices.

Visit economicforecast.chapman.edu to view the entire presentation.